Thursday Night Game

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami: I'll be honest - I don't really understand the Panthers. I don't know if anyone does.

What's that smell?

Tommy is on the road, has cougars on his mind, and went 2-11 last week. That's the unmistakable stench of a cheap cigarette, dollar-store perfume, and a glass of Early Times or Ol' Granddad on the rocks...in other words, the stench of a cougar...who works a street corner.

How else do you explain a 2-11 week? The number and alcohol content of the drinks that lead to such an evening...and the morning (of picking football) after, had to have been one for the ages.

Let's break it down:

Broncos (+3) over Ravens: The Broncos came off a bye week and got throttled on the road by the Ravens. Kyle Orton looked decidedly pedestrian, and with the schedule ahead and competition for the two wild card spots, fans in Denver can't be blamed for nervously looking over their shoulder to see where San Diego is. 0-1.

Browns (+13) over Bears: So the Browns take a Bengals team to the last two minutes of OT before losing...a Bengals team that crushed the Bears last weekend...and then manage one TD in losing 30-6 against the Bears? The only thing more confusing than that string of comparisons is that Brady Quinn somehow isn't getting snaps over the worthless, veteran, Joey Harrington...er Derek Anderson. 0-2.

Texans (-3.5) over Bills: If the Bills' recent mini-surge looked too good to be true, it's because it was. They will lose to any football team that is at least decent. (And yes, that's an indictment of the Jets.) There are two things to note about this game: It was one of Tommy's two wins (and hence why it's in bold) and the Texans' TE Owen Daniels blew an ACL and is done for the season. Daniels was the hottest TE in the league and was raking fantasy points for me.

Now, after his bye week, it's Zach Miller Time. But for this week, it's John Carlson. Fuck. Me. 1-2.

Packers (+3) over Falcons (Falcons? Huh? Oh, you mean the other team about 1200 miles Northwest that also plays in a dome...Yeah, it must have been a rough night.): While I was out in Minneapolis last weekend, I saw a Packers fan dressed up in orange hunting pants, a Favre jersey, a noose around his neck, and a will that left his "middle finger" to Brett Favre.

As it ends up, Favre gave Green Bay the twin-bird this season, beating them twice. The only good to come out of this game was that Aaron Rodgers won one of my fantasy matchups. 1-3.

Colts (-13) over Niners: Iron Mike had his boys play Indianpolis tough. It's tough to say that there are moral victories in football, but if the Niners can take a lead into the 4th quarter against the Colts and hold Indy's offense to 18 points, then they should have every reason to believe they can win the cesspool that is the NFC West.

Thirteen points is a lot to give on the road--especially after the Niners hung with Houston last week. Oops. 1-4.

Jets (-3.5) over Fins: The Jets are not a good football team. Miami isn't either, but the relative strength of its running game (Ricky Williams is quietly having a solid year) to anything the Jets can put on the field should be enough to take Miami and points against any other mediocre team. That and Chad Henne isn't going to get the chance to fuck a game up, unless he's bad at Madden, because he might as well manage the game with a PS3 controller. 1-5.

Lions (-4) over Rams: The Lions are awful. The Rams are awful. The Rams are no longer winless. Someone got points against Detroit, and you didn't take the points? I'd have taken most Michigan high schools and points against the Lions. 1-6.

Cowboys (-9.5) over Seaducks: The Cowboys' offense is rolling, even if the only thing Roy Williams learned from TO is how to whine to the media about the balls Tony Romo throws him...and the Seahawks aren't any good. On the road, I would've been skeptical about the Cowboys giving 9.5, but at home, this was an easy decision, and not surprisingly one of the two Tommy got right.

With the Giants' mid-season defensive collapse that is costing me fantasy matchups, the Cowboys' offense looks like a force in an overrated NFC East. 2-6.

Oh--it's all L's the rest of the way.

Chargers (-16.5 ?!?!?) over Raiders: I left the "?!" in there because this line didn't make sense to me either. Apparently Vegas thought that the Chargers' offense was going to play two halves. Little did they know that Tom Cable was threatening to "choke a bitch Wayne Brady style" if the Chargers didn't let the Raiders make it look respectable.

Philip Rivers, the committed feminist that he is, had watched Outside the Lines and took Cable's threat seriously, causing him to take the second half off, shifting the feeling of asphyxiation from an innocent woman to anyone in Vegas who bet on San Diego. 2-7.

Jags (+3) over Titans: Tennessee won a football game. And they covered. Handily. Perhaps the terrorist plot was foiled. But really, it's more a case of: Jacksonville: Bad. Tennessee: A team you don't want to touch with a 30 foot pole made out of Benjamins. 2-8.

Cardinals (-10) over Panthers: The Cardinals' run defense has to be absolute dogshit. Jake Delhomme completed 7 of 14 passes for 90 yards and a TD, and the Panthers still won handily. Fortunately, the Panthers have a great RB and a very good one, or DeAngelo Williams' legs would still end the season in worse shape than Jake Delhomme's confidence.

Which, by the numbers, is at risk of falling into Ryan Leaf territory. This game almost gives Bears fans something to look forward to for this week's matchup against the Cardinals...but the Bears have no offensive line, so running the ball is sadly not a real option. If only the Bears could play a team that would throw the ball 14 times...their secondary could use a week of not being exposed.

Chalk Larry Fitzgerald up for 2 TD's and Warner for 280+ yards. And Tommy up for another loss. 2-I've lost count.

Giants (-1) over Eagles: Three weeks ago, Sarah Palin, Dick Army, and Dick Cheney endorsed the Giants' defense as the right choice for New York. It then failed to win key matchups, looking too conservative during most of them.

The Eagles are proving that "little fast guy" is a job description, and that an offense can be built around "little fast guys" that are interchangeable parts. Imagine what the Eagles could do with Darren Sproles, or even Tim Dwight in his prime.

Maybe the Bears can trade Garret Wolfe to the Eagles for a first round draft pick. Oh? It's "Good little fast guys." Gotcha. Chalk up a win for former Pitt Panther Shady McCoy and the Eagles--and another loss for Tommy. 2-10.

Saints (-10.5) over Falcons: Even though the Falcons didn't beat the Saints, they showed the only way a team can realistically beat them: run the ball well enough to keep the Saints' offense off the field--and score TD's from the running game. It's a tall task against a surprisingly good Saints defense, but the Falcons did it well enough to cover...and keep the game interesting until the end.

Meanwhile, the Saints offense proved why it's the most fun offense to watch week in and week out.

2-11. I hope the cougar was worth every dollar. And I would imagine a similarly bad confidence pool left you swimming with Jake Delhomme...you know, face down in the pool, in such bad shape that not even the pool boy will pretend that he knows you.

The Ticker: Starting on the Road

I'm traveling for the next few weeks, so these are simple:

Broncos (+3) over Ravens
Browns (+13) over Bears
Texans (-3.5) over Bills
Packers (+3) over Falcons
Colts (-13) over Niners
Jets (-3.5) over Fins
Lions (-4) over Rams (how did anyone even attempt to set this line?)
Cowboys (-9.5) over Seaducks
Chargers (-16.5 ?!?!?) over Raiders
Jags (+3) over Titans
Cardinals (-10) over Panthers
Giants (-1) over Eagles
Saints (-10.5) over Falcons

The Ticker: Week 7 - Cougar Attack!

Every now and then I dip into the college realm just for fun. This week? The Big Ten!

(Keep reading. Please? I promise the entire conference isn’t as crappy as you think. I’ll keep it focused to one really bad quarterback and one leading team.)

Particularly in the wake of the loss to Purdue last week, the radio waves in Columbus were deluged with calls for Terrelle Pryor to be moved to receiver, for Tressel to be fired, or for Mo Clarett to be freed from jail and his eligibility purchased from the NCAA. I couldn’t see last week’s game, so I’ve spent part of my morning watching Ohio State play Minnesota. As halftime approaches, I can’t tell if the announcers hate Pryor or not. One of them just said, “Tressel says [Pryor]’s making progress, and he is, but we just can’t see it on the field.” Bob Griese then helpfully pointed out that Ohio State never asks Pryor to throw the ball inside the hash marks except on a deep post. This, my friends, is change we can believe in.

Here’s my Pryor prediction: he will not be Ohio State’s starting quarterback by Week 5 of next year.

Now, for a good team: the Iowa Cougars, err, I mean, Hawkeyes. Let me explain my confusion.
The Hawkeyes remind me of a 44-year old cougar on the prowl. They are not attractive (if this team really were a woman, I’d put them at 5’6” and 165 with less than perfect teeth and nails stained by nicotine), and at any given point their big plays seem to surprise them as much as they do me. They look like a team playing with about 80% of past potential, but they are well-coached enough to make up for lack of ability with trickery. Once they learn your weakness, you succumb to them more readily, and they don’t rely on wooing you all themselves; they are content to let you make a few mistakes, take a few shots you don’t need, and then you wake up to the smell of wine and cheap perfume.

Look at the Iowa season: escape from Northern Iowa by blocking two potential game-tying extra points to start things off. Ugly.

Pummel Iowa State, a Big 12 team whose value will really only be calculable after Oklahoma State gets done pummeling them in two weeks.

Beat mediocre Arizona team at home.

Go into Happy Valley and throttle Penn State. Things to remember: Iowa beat Penn State last year to derail Penn State’s unbeaten season. This makes the Nittany Lions a past conquest, and I think we all know that once you’ve tasted the forbidden fruit of your local cougar, it’s easy to slide out of the bar with her again.

Control a game at home against Arkansas State, but only manage to win by 3. Arkansas State, since you are likely unfamiliar with it, is in Jonesboro, Arkansas. I’ve been there. I won’t be going back. I also can’t tell you what conference Arkansas State is in.
Hold off Michigan at home, winning by two points in a game they were favored by eight. Michigan is a good team, and in a year or two they will probably be a great team. For now, though, this was a game that seemed to show Iowa’s stretch marks.
Outscore Wisconsin 17-0 in the second half while taking advantage of Wisconsin QB Dave Tolzien’s inevitable turnovers and converting a third and long by throwing a touchdown on the scramble. It’s another quality road win, but when you add all this together you have two good road wins, one easy win, and four games where this team looks like you’re seeing them the morning after.

Tonight they are going into East Lansing to take on Sparty & Friends, another team that is unbeaten in Big 10 play and sneaky good. The Spartans are 2 point favorites, which probably means that Iowa is heading to 8-0.

The secret to Iowa is their defense and special teams, which generally win the field position battle and force their opponents to go the length of the field. I can’t decide if this is like having an Amex Black card or a set of really hot twenty-something friends that distract all of the prey’s friends, but it’s one or the other. And it works. Opponents come in, think to themselves, “I’m better than that,” and then find themselves alone, cornered, and making nervous mistakes that lead to disaster: drinking too fast, turning the ball over, and convincing themselves they have what it takes to handle the situation.

By the way, when they play someone in the Rose Bowl in January, um, don’t bet on Iowa.

On to this week’s picks:

Bye Week (-7) over TITANS: BG took my column. I’m still getting in a joke. And given the Tennessee fan’s reaction to Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey earlier this week, I think there’s an easy cover here.

Chargers (-5.5) over CHEFS: Does the Chefs effort against Dallas mean that Arrowhead’s magic is being reborn? I don’t know, but I also don’t expect the Chargers to give up two special teams touchdowns.

Colts (-14) over RAMS: “STL-Avery, Martin both Questionable STL-multiple injuries in secondary.” Even if Peyton’s knee isn’t 100% healthy, the Colts will be covering before they pull him.

BENGALS (-1) over Bears: I’m not picking the Bears again until they are getting more points or they actually play one entire game on both sides of the ball. I’m also terrified by the 3 receivers the Bengals can split out against Chicago’s one viable cornerback. While I’m on the subject, Zack Bowman has been a huge letdown for the Bears this season; they had hoped he would provide another legitimate cornerback and he has instead left them switching Peanut Tillman from side to side locked onto the opponent’s top receiver. I don’t like Bowman’s chances against Chris Henry.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS: If I didn’t like this enough already, the Browns have had 6 starters battling the flu all week. Yes, please.

Vikings (+6) over STEELERS: With no real adverse weather expected, I think the Vikings keep this close. Jeff Reed is probably drunk right now, too, so he’s good for at least one missed field goal to help the dogs cover. Then he will make a game winner.

Patriots (-15) over BUCS: Good team. Bad team.

Niners (+3) over TEXANS: Matt Schaub just had a good week, so he’s probably due for a bad one. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from the Texans anymore. They terrify me. Just stay away from this game. Niners get back Frank Gore and debut Michael Crabtree; one of them matters, one doesn’t. Go Iron Mike.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS: The Jets won’t miss as many tackles as the Eagles did last week. And yes, I’m bitter with the Raiders for winning last week.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills: I tried to talk myself into taking Ryan Fitzgerald on the road getting seven points after he came into the game and helped the Bills beat the Jets. I couldn’t do it. The Panthers have remembered they have two good running backs. Expect to see heavy doses of them.

DOLPHINS (+6.5) over Saints: New Orleans is winning this game, but the Dolphins are not going to lose by a lot when they control the clock and run the Wildcat.

Cardinals (+7) over GIANTS: After last week, does Arizona still have the best wide receiving corps, or did New Orleans’ destruction of the Giants elevate a new group to the throne? (Not that Fitzgerald isn’t the best receiver, but as a group, I’ll take Colston and co. because they use their hands, make tough catches, and have the best quarterback in the conference. I think the Giants win this game, but I think they have to make it ugly.

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS: How bad are the ‘Skins? So bad that I’m taking Philly giving points the week after that turd sandwich of a game in Oakland. Sigh.

Was Katelynn Saying "Booo" or "Booo-urns?"

TT: Hey babbling gump, are they booing me?

BG: No, they're saying 'Boo-urns, Boo-urns.'

TT: Are you saying 'Boo' or 'Boo-urns.'

Hans Moleman: I was saying "Boo-urns."

The rest of us (including one commenter) are booing yet another pathetic week of picks from Mr. Tearass, who went 6-8 this week. Let's start where Tommy did--with tonight's game:

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Broncos.

The difference in this game entirely can be explained by each team's offensive lines. Rivers was sacked a career-high 5 times. There are trimmers that have given Kyle Orton's neckbeard a closer shave than the San Diego D gave him tonight. The Denver offense is scarily balanced, and their defense, save a few bad pass interference calls, looked fine without Brian Dawkins.

So, with tonight's road win--and Oakland's road win in Philly--it might be time to hop on the Radio Flyer and ride it in every game but @ Baltimore, and the two against each of the Mannings, right?

Nope. I'm going to go back to something that I said week 2 about the Chiefs/Ravens game: don't count special teams TD's in making predictions about teams going forward. If Denver's two return TD's are taken off the board (but yes, I know, what's to say they wouldn't have scored on those possessions anyways?), their offensive output looks decidedly more mediocre.

But it also looks balanced--29 rushes at RB and 29 passes from Orton. Denver isn't going to blow teams out, which makes them iffy to cover but a great pick with points. And this is why Tommy should've stuck with Denver and why he failed to reach .500 this week. 0-1.

Chiefs (+6.5) over REDSKINS: Tommy got one right in every respect. But it's still going to be a few more weeks before this blind squirrel finds his second nut. The Chiefs were safe at +6.5, and probably the best dog on the money line. This game was so ugly that even the NFL Red Zone studio guy didn't want to show any more of it than they had to show. 1-1.

BENGALS (-5) over Texans: Oops. But I don't blame you too much. The Bengals are enigmatic to say the least--a late win over the Steelers to a last second FG in OT to beat the Browns, then hanging with the Ravens all game to win late, to letting Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton have their way? The only moral of these stories is that if the Bengals win, they do it late and not by much.

Which is probably why the Texans and 5 were a good pick. So yeah--actually, I do blame you for not seeing a blatantly obvious trend and betting it. 1-2.

STEELERS (-14) over Browns: Haven't you learned that big favorites from Pittsburgh don't cover? Or are you intelligently not applying your March Madness experience to the NFL? This is twice that the Steelers failed to cover against the league's worst.

Again, there's a trend here--but since you ignored it three times in the Bengals' case, I bet you can ignore it three times here too. 1-3.

Ravens (+3) over VIKINGS: Tommy takes the points and wins. But the Ravens kicker shanks a gimme FG and fails. Vegas had this game picked perfectly, as it ends up, and Tommy found a way to win. The Ravens probably were the safest dog on the money line, although I doubt they had the reward the Chiefs had. I have a feeling that a lot of tears were shed in Vegas as the FG went wide-left. But this is the spread and not the money line, and a 1 point win still counts. 2-3.

Rams (+9.5) over JAGUARS: The rhyme and reason to Jax is that they're bad. Their two wins came against an atrocious abomination (see the post below) of a Titans team, and in a shootout against the Texans. 9.5 was way too many points to give to St. Louis--and this almost was the money line pick of the week (again, see the post below). Almost insightful analysis from Tommy for a 3-3 record.

SAINTS (-3) over Giants: Eli Manning and the Giants' D are obviously not 100%. But that doesn't explain the ass-whoopin that the Saints laid on the Giants. The bye that the Saints had in week 5 does. Of course, you can say that the Giants had a virtual bye in Oakland in week 5. You'd be right--and given the outcome, you'd be right to say that it looks like the Giants spent too much time preparing for the Raiders.

Just don't tell that to the Eagles. 4-3.

Panthers (-3) over BUCCANEERS: All I have to say about this game is that 1. I still don't know who TB's QB is, and 2. This was a really shitty week to face DeAngelo Williams in one fantasy league while leaving him on the bench in another. Fuck. 5-3

PACKERS (-13.5) over Lions: I can't name the Lions' third string QB, but the Packers' defense did a good job of finding him and sacking him. At least the Bears get as many free wins as the Packers and Vikings do. 6-3 (but don't worry, reality comes calling riiiiiiiight now)

Eagles (-14) over RAIDERS: There's always one game on the Eagles' schedule that they should win easily but fail to win. Case in point--the tie against the Bungles. This is the Eagles' giant hiccup, and it could prove costly in a conference where Atlanta, and two of the three non-Lions teams in the NFC North are the competition for a wild card spot.

Andy Reid is safe, even if the Eagles miss the playoffs, but if they miss it because of this game, his ass should be canned, preferably in a Campbell's Chunky Soup can. Emphasis on "chunky." 6-4

SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals: The Hasselbeck at home theory has a problem: you developed it after a convincing win over a very bad Jacksonville team. This formula is so simple that it fails to account for the quality of the opponent. The Cardinals, if you didn't know, nearly won the Super Bowl last year, and they have a potent offense.

The last time I checked, Hasselbeck doesn't play defense, and the Cardinals are all about offense. Awful theory gets awful results--imagine that. 6-5.

JETS (-9.5) over Bills: Apparently Matt Sanchez needs time to adjust to New York falls and winters. It's not Southern California. It's also not every day that a QB earns fantasy owners negative points and frustrates bettors and survivor pools to no end. The only reason why this was a bad pick, that I can see, is that the Bills have hung around more opponents than they haven't, and 9.5 points was a lot. 6-6

Titans (+9) over PATRIOTS: See the post below--I've already beaten the Titan horse deader than anything in Vincent Vega's and Jules Winfield's trunk. Still, it was strangely amusing to watch one team overcome natural obstacles and succeed, while the other team let nature crush what little, tiny bit of their souls that remained. 6-7

Bears (+3) over FALCONS: Sadly, the Bears came off their bye week not significantly healthier and with an offensive line that is as dumb and incapable of blocking as ever. Two red zone turnovers (and there have been way too many this season) and a failure by Orlando Pace to know what the snap count was on a key 4th and 1 with less than a minute left (that would've undoubtedly set up 1st and goal and 3-4 shots at the end zone) cost the Bears what was a very winnable game against a team that is competing for the wild card.

On the bright side, you were right about Tony Gonzalez raping and pillaging the Bears' defense.

6-8. Sometimes I wonder if you're trying to be this mediocre, then I realize that it's you.

Tommy Jekyll, Tearass Hyde, and 0-6: The Sum of Tennessee's Fears

Before we pass final judgment on this week, knowing that, at best, Tommy can go 7-7, I just want to quote two things:

Rams (+9.5) over JAGUARS: "If you have real guts, take the Rams +380 to get off the schneid."

Almost prescient advice--it makes me think that sometimes your instincts are good.

Titans (+9) over PATRIOTS: "I don’t think the Pats can lose this game, but I think the weather might make it a closer contest than would be expected."

These are the sorts of predictions that won't land you a recording on and cut of the profitable 1-900-NFL-BETS anytime soon.

But since I'm on this game, lets track the Titans' season...

Week 1: Close loss in Pittsburgh--if Rod Bironas could kick, or if the Titans' offensive coordinator could've realized a no-huddle, 2-minute drill offense was the only one working for either team, this abortion of a season is probably averted.

Week 2: A close loss to Houston in the home opener. Discussion of whether the expansion has eclipsed the original franchise is prematurely judged premature. Browns fans think about their yearly trip to Baltimore and sob in a fetal position while feeling intense jealousy toward the Texans.

Week 3: A close loss on the road to an upstart J-E-T-S team. The media is too busy fellating Sanchez and a resurgent J-E-T-S franchise that they give the J-E-T-S' win more credibility by calling Tennessee the "best 0-3 team out there."

Week 4: A pretty big loss on the road in Jacksonville. Two things become very clear--the Titans aren't going to the playoffs, and there are bigger problems in Tennessee (a defense like a sieve and other teams have figured out that Tennessee can't throw the ball if they can't run).

But because the media can't imagine and likes to stick with story lines, Tennessee is still the "best 0-4 team, maybe the best 0-4 team ever" and can still save the season with a win at home against division-rival Indy in week 5. Nobody knows how bad it's going to get, which is good.
When time travel is invented, someone from the future can go back to the Monday night of Week 4 and cause a noticeable spike in Nashvegas' suicide and depression rates.

Week 5: The Titans aren't even in the game against Indy, as their vaunted running game can't do anything against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense, while Manning destroys the defense. All of a sudden, whoever took Jeff Fisher in a "coaches fired" pool looks like a genius, and anyone who had the Titans penciled in for survivor victories in week 10 against the Bills or week 13 against the Rams are scrambling to adjust their long-term plans. Titan fans are also finding a newfound interest in college football beyond Tennessee--as the "who should Tennessee take with the #1 draft pick?" discussion is now credible.

But the best summary of this week comes from a friend's Facebook status: "Not looking forward to Sunday Night Facecrush."

Week 6: It was cold and snowy in New England...and it was absolute zero on the Titans' sideline. Never have I seen a team play sixty minutes of soulless football...in part because I'd hit the reset button before 30 minutes of soulless football had transpired.

In one week, the Titans season has gone from downward spiral to a soulless pit of despair that would freak out Karl Rove, homeless crack addicts, and Cubs fans.

The only thing that I can think of to explain the Titans' 0-6 record and total collapse is that they're all carrying a collective weight on their shoulders that none of us can imagine...one that would leave Atlas looking like a skunk plastered in the middle of a back-country Iowa road.

I think that I know what it is. There's a "Sum of All Fears" style plot in motion that only the Titans know about. Sometime this season, the only winners of one of their home games are going to be terrorists, and they're doing their part to keep as many fans at home as possible, thereby minimizing casualties.

I can't think of another explanation for their 0-6 record and today's performance that made me want to curl up and read Nietzche to reaffirm my faith in the human soul and spirit.

Well, nothing else besides that they're one of the worst 0-6 teams ever.

The Ticker: Week 6 - Leaving the Radio Flyer

I’m thinking about bailing from the Broncos bandwagon.

As someone who had to listen to “You were right about the Pats. They are the best team ever. But you still lost the bet!” after The Helmet Catch, sometimes you make a pick you don’t believe in and it pays off, but you know in your heart that you got lucky.

Last Sunday, I got lucky with Kyle Orton and co.

In a week where every sportswriter I have read or heard has been extolling the virtues of Neckbeard (and usually also of Ced “The Mirage” Benson) and The Kid, I am looking downriver and seeing that spot where there’s just a lot of mist and a distant rumbling. This is not to say Denver won’t make the playoffs; they probably will. But I only see 5 more wins (at Washington, home against San Diego, home against Oakland, and two games against Kansas City) on that schedule. That may actually be all it takes for them to win the division. The rest of Denver’s schedule: at Baltimore, home for Pittsburgh, home for the Giants, at Indy, and at Philly.

Look at how the Broncos started: Week 1 was a fluke. Week 2 doesn’t count – it was the Cleveland Poops. In Week 3, the team run by He Who Shall Not Be Named. Week 4 they eeked out a win because a) the Cowboys can’t tackle, and b) Orton snuck a stupidly dangerous pass through the hands of a Cowboy defender to Moreno for a touchdown. Seventy percent of the time, that play would have been 6 the other way. Last week, the Broncos made it to OT and won, but needed Brandon Marshall to bat down a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage to prevent an interception and Jabar Gaffney to catch a similarly tipped ball to keep a drive alive.

Orton currently has thrown one (concededly meaningless) interception all season, but that number could easily be four or five and the Broncos could easily be 2-3, rather than 5-0, and hoping for 7-9.

That only looks at the Broncos side of the ball.

Romo played terribly against the Broncos (the prime example being his repeated insistence on going after Champ Bailey with the game on the line), and as noted above, the Dallas defense has underperformed to date. Brady overthrew Moss several times even before his protection started breaking down. New England’s offensive line severely limited the effectiveness of the Denver pass rush, and although the Patriots failed to capitalize on it, receivers were open downfield. Denver is vulnerable to the long ball. As common sense dictates, this vulnerability is even greater when the opponent can run or completes lots of short crossing routes to draw Brian Dawkins closer to the line, limiting his ability to help.

Should I mention now that Phillip Rivers throws a beautiful deep ball to Vincent Jackson, or that the threat of that deep ball allows the Chargers to stretch the field for Antonio Gates?

I will concede that it is possible The Kid can keep his team focused for the stretch, like his mentor did, and that Denver could win 13 or 14 games (I refuse to concede wins against either of the teams with a Manning). But I wouldn’t bet on it.

So, to start the picks, the last shall be first: CHARGERS (-3.5) over Broncos.

Chiefs (+6.5) over REDSKINS: Dallas isn’t good, but I think they are better than the Redskins. Any time your team is asking ownership for a kiss-of-death vote of confidence for the coach, things probably aren’t going smoothly. Add in that we had a Dwayne Bowe sighting last weekend, and I feel okay about this. Just avert your eyes while it happens.

BENGALS (-5) over Texans: While the Bengals’ game unfolded last week, my friend Shane got onto how Cedric Benson is good. I didn’t believe at the time (and am still unsure that I do believe) in Ced. I felt like his yards were coming as the result of a magic trick, but of the poor variety that is doomed to be quickly understood and revealed when repeated. As a result, I called him “The Mirage.” Not such a bad idea in hindsight, because Ravens defenders had such a hard time tackling him that he very well may be using magic, or perhaps some kind of voodoo. This week, while I still cannot figure out the Texans, I do not believe in teams with no run defense and I can’t get past the fact that the Bengals played really well last week.

STEELERS (-14) over Browns: Only 3 Derek Anderson passes were not incomplete last week against the Bills, and one of them was to the wrong team. I cannot help but lay the points. If it’s not obvious, stay away from this.

Ravens (+3) over VIKINGS: The last time the Ravens gave up 100 yards before last week was in 2006. The next week, neither Jason Wright nor Reuben Droughns cracked 40 yards. That may just mean Cleveland was terrible then, too, but I anticipate a bounce back week for the Ravens D. If you can’t get excited to play A.D.A.P., what do you get excited about on defense? On the flip side, for as good as the Minnesota defense looked sacking Aaron Rodgers, the Rams were able to move the ball last week and lit themselves on fire with multiple turnovers.

Rams (+9.5) over JAGUARS: There is no rhyme or reason to Jacksonville, and as mentioned just above, the Rams might have at least been in the game against Minnesota if not for the four turnovers that could have meant a 28 point swing (one fumble returned for a touchdown, two fumbles and a pick less than ten yards from the end zone). I’ll take the points. I’ll regret it, but I’ll take it. If you have real guts, take the Rams +380 to get off the schneid.

SAINTS (-3) over Giants: I cannot say how happy I am that it’s the Dallas bye week so I have a shot at watching this game from the comfort of my couch. New Orleans is coming off the bye week and should be fully rested, so that should give Brees enough juice to escape the rush and give the Saints’ D the energy it needs to get to the less-than-100% Manning. Should be an exciting game to watch, though.

Panthers (-3) over BUCCANEERS: Sadly, no one expects a hurricane to rain this game out. Sigh.

PACKERS (-13.5) over Lions: I might take the points here if Stafford and Calvin Johnson hadn’t both been downgraded to doubtful. I can’t name another offensive starter for the Lions, though, so let’s lay the points and take the team coming off the bye week.

Eagles (-14) over RAIDERS: How high do you think the lines will get against the Raiders before the season ends? Has any player in the NFL ever made it more clear that he didn’t care than JaMarcus is currently doing? Is there even an equivalent? Vince Carter once mailed it in to try and get traded, but I don’t even think Russell has that much motivation. I think he just wants to get paid, so he shows up, and he knows they have to play him. I almost, almost, almost feel bad for Raiders fans. Not really. By the way, this and the next three games are the afternoon slate – might as well pencil yourself in for a nap.

SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals: When Hasselbeck plays, and the game is at Qwest, just lay the points. It’s a simple formula, but I ignored it last week and paid. Probably the only game that has a chance to be watchable.

JETS (-9.5) over Bills: The only concern I have about this one is the weather: it’s supposed to be sloppy and windy in New Jersey on Sunday, which could bring down the scoring and make for an awful to watch event.

Titans (+9) over PATRIOTS: Another game to be played in sloppy weather with moderate winds. There’s question as to how long Kerry Collins will play in any given game, and the Patriots have taken Matt Light off the injury report, but earlier this week he needed crutches to get around with his injured knee. I don’t think the Pats can lose this game, but I think the weather might make it a closer contest than would be expected.

Bears (+3) over FALCONS: I would like this line a lot more if it still had the hook it opened with in it, but I expect the Bears to come in off their bye week motivated, healthier, and with a great deal of respect for Atlanta’s ability following the Falcons’ dismantling of the Niners last weekend. The Bears are not a great matchup for the Falcons, however, because of the speed at linebacker. Look for the Falcons to try to exploit the middle of the field behind the linebackers with Tony Gonzalez, however; if they can succeed in stretching the field up the middle in that manner, it will limit the Bears ability to blitz if the defensive line cannot get to Matty Ice by itself. If Ryan gets all day in the pocket, anyone betting the Bears might as well do something useful with the money and give it to the homeless instead.

Last week: 7-7

Season: 38-38

Upon further review: yeah, Week 4 was 5-9. I’ve adjusted my numbers. It was 6-8 on Yahoo!, where I apparently picked Houston over the Raiders. Somebody sign me up for Umpire Camp or get me an application to be a replacement ref in the NBA . . . I think I’m fully qualified.

Mediocre is as .500 Does

First off--have you tried a Hass avacodo Tommy?

Because I'm pretty sure your heart is going to wish you had in about 30 years. (Don't worry, I'm only giving myself 24.)

My LCS picks: Angels in 6, Phillies in 5.

And can we get an independent scorekeeper's ruling? I had Tommy at 5-9 last week--he had himself at 6-8. The record must be set straight!

The mediocre stayed painfully mediocre this week with pocket 7's. Let's break it down:

Vikings (-10) over RAMS: Never in doubt. But two good pieces of news for Rams fans: Rush Limbaugh was dropped from the group that he was a part of, trying to purchase the Rams, and second, the Blues are playing again. (But they come to Pittsburgh this week--so sorry about that.) 1-0

Cowboys (-8.5) over CHIEFS: As soon as this one went to OT, it was over for the spread. The Chiefs hung around despite a monster game from Miles Austin. The Cowboys D is, apparently, that bad, and the Chiefs show a little feistiness. 1-1

Redskins (+3.5) over PANTHERS: Vegas had this one dead-on. The half a point tilts this one to the W column. Two good things came from this: both teams are one game closer to ending their season, and Carolina no longer has to be talked about in the same sentence as Tennessee. 2-1

EAGLES (-15) over Buccaneers: I have to admit that I blinked when I saw this spread. But a semi-healthy McNabb, with speedy receivers, is too big of a force against a bad defense and a team with a QB who I still can't name. Not a hard call in hindsight. 3-1

NY GIANTS (-15) over Raiders: Hitting an assistant coach isn't the biggest reason the Raiders coach should be in jail. If the wardens put him in charge of coaching the inmates, the longest yard would become the longest 4th and forever. This was an incredibly easy survivor pick--I looked at the Giants schedule and said "yes please." 4-1

Browns (+6) over BILLS: Browns, on road. Two phrases that make this decision suspect, but it was a good call. This game will go down as one of the 5 worst NFL games of the decade--maybe even ever. The US government is also considering annexing Lake Erie's southern shore to Canada. Perhaps Rush Limbaugh could purchase a brand new CFL team, not that these teams would win anything in the 'true north strong and free.' 5-1

RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals: Oops. I think you're right about the Packers, but the Bengals are a tough team. They have a solid o-line, and Cedric Benson is resurrecting his career. Carson Palmer is also making incredibly clutch throws at the end of games. Anytime the Bengals get more than a TD, I think you have to take them. 5-2

Steelers (-10.5) over LIONS: "Yup. Mmhmm. Largely." The last time someone said that to you, there was great disappointment. And so there was for the people who bet on the Steelers. 5-3

49ERS (-2.5) over Falcons: Nobody saw this game being a huge blowout--but if you didn't take the Falcons and points with them coming off a bye week, you should have your head examined. The first test should be shining a flashlight through one ear, because I promise you that the light is coming out the other.

Bettors who pay attention to bye weeks win. 5-4.

BRONCOS (+3) over Patriots: What a game to watch. The Broncos are 5-0, Kyle Orton's neckbeard looks like a Pro-Bowl neckbeard, and Bellichik had to swallow his pride. The only thing not to like about this game is that Tommy got it right. 6-4.

Texans (+5.5) over CARDINALS: I don't understand either team too, but Arizona covered. Games where either QB could be brilliant or awful are impossible to pick. But still, you lose. 6-5.

Jaguars (<-4.5/8.5) over SEADUCKS: After this game, there's only one conclusion: NEVER BET ON A GAME INVOLVING EITHER TEAM THIS SEASON. 6-6

In honor of the green and blue's shutout, I give you the Brass Bonanza. (It's catchy.)

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS: I hope your winnings from this game covered the trip. I fell asleep during the game, and I wouldn't have blamed anyone in attendance for doing the same.

So--when are you going to invite me to one of these weekends? Your stories about them almost seem interesting. 7-6

Jets (-2) over DOLPHINS: Chad Henne to Tommy Tearass: FUCK YOU. Jets D:Bills D is more like Mike's Hard Lemonade:Boone's Farm.

7-7. After hitting the mean last week, there's no nowhere left for Tommy to regress. Between .500 weeks, and his stories of NFL weekends, this blog is about to replace Tylenol PM as prescriptions for insomnia.

That is until I write next week's column.