I’m thinking about bailing from the Broncos bandwagon.
As someone who had to listen to “You were right about the Pats. They are the best team ever. But you still lost the bet!” after The Helmet Catch, sometimes you make a pick you don’t believe in and it pays off, but you know in your heart that you got lucky.
Last Sunday, I got lucky with Kyle Orton and co.
In a week where every sportswriter I have read or heard has been extolling the virtues of Neckbeard (and usually also of Ced “The Mirage” Benson) and The Kid, I am looking downriver and seeing that spot where there’s just a lot of mist and a distant rumbling. This is not to say Denver won’t make the playoffs; they probably will. But I only see 5 more wins (at Washington, home against San Diego, home against Oakland, and two games against Kansas City) on that schedule. That may actually be all it takes for them to win the division. The rest of Denver’s schedule: at Baltimore, home for Pittsburgh, home for the Giants, at Indy, and at Philly.
Look at how the Broncos started: Week 1 was a fluke. Week 2 doesn’t count – it was the Cleveland Poops. In Week 3, the team run by He Who Shall Not Be Named. Week 4 they eeked out a win because a) the Cowboys can’t tackle, and b) Orton snuck a stupidly dangerous pass through the hands of a Cowboy defender to Moreno for a touchdown. Seventy percent of the time, that play would have been 6 the other way. Last week, the Broncos made it to OT and won, but needed Brandon Marshall to bat down a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage to prevent an interception and Jabar Gaffney to catch a similarly tipped ball to keep a drive alive.
Orton currently has thrown one (concededly meaningless) interception all season, but that number could easily be four or five and the Broncos could easily be 2-3, rather than 5-0, and hoping for 7-9.
That only looks at the Broncos side of the ball.
Romo played terribly against the Broncos (the prime example being his repeated insistence on going after Champ Bailey with the game on the line), and as noted above, the Dallas defense has underperformed to date. Brady overthrew Moss several times even before his protection started breaking down. New England’s offensive line severely limited the effectiveness of the Denver pass rush, and although the Patriots failed to capitalize on it, receivers were open downfield. Denver is vulnerable to the long ball. As common sense dictates, this vulnerability is even greater when the opponent can run or completes lots of short crossing routes to draw Brian Dawkins closer to the line, limiting his ability to help.
Should I mention now that Phillip Rivers throws a beautiful deep ball to Vincent Jackson, or that the threat of that deep ball allows the Chargers to stretch the field for Antonio Gates?
I will concede that it is possible The Kid can keep his team focused for the stretch, like his mentor did, and that Denver could win 13 or 14 games (I refuse to concede wins against either of the teams with a Manning). But I wouldn’t bet on it.
So, to start the picks, the last shall be first: CHARGERS (-3.5) over Broncos.
Chiefs (+6.5) over REDSKINS: Dallas isn’t good, but I think they are better than the Redskins. Any time your team is asking ownership for a kiss-of-death vote of confidence for the coach, things probably aren’t going smoothly. Add in that we had a Dwayne Bowe sighting last weekend, and I feel okay about this. Just avert your eyes while it happens.
BENGALS (-5) over Texans: While the Bengals’ game unfolded last week, my friend Shane got onto how Cedric Benson is good. I didn’t believe at the time (and am still unsure that I do believe) in Ced. I felt like his yards were coming as the result of a magic trick, but of the poor variety that is doomed to be quickly understood and revealed when repeated. As a result, I called him “The Mirage.” Not such a bad idea in hindsight, because Ravens defenders had such a hard time tackling him that he very well may be using magic, or perhaps some kind of voodoo. This week, while I still cannot figure out the Texans, I do not believe in teams with no run defense and I can’t get past the fact that the Bengals played really well last week.
STEELERS (-14) over Browns: Only 3 Derek Anderson passes were not incomplete last week against the Bills, and one of them was to the wrong team. I cannot help but lay the points. If it’s not obvious, stay away from this.
Ravens (+3) over VIKINGS: The last time the Ravens gave up 100 yards before last week was in 2006. The next week, neither Jason Wright nor Reuben Droughns cracked 40 yards. That may just mean Cleveland was terrible then, too, but I anticipate a bounce back week for the Ravens D. If you can’t get excited to play A.D.A.P., what do you get excited about on defense? On the flip side, for as good as the Minnesota defense looked sacking Aaron Rodgers, the Rams were able to move the ball last week and lit themselves on fire with multiple turnovers.
Rams (+9.5) over JAGUARS: There is no rhyme or reason to Jacksonville, and as mentioned just above, the Rams might have at least been in the game against Minnesota if not for the four turnovers that could have meant a 28 point swing (one fumble returned for a touchdown, two fumbles and a pick less than ten yards from the end zone). I’ll take the points. I’ll regret it, but I’ll take it. If you have real guts, take the Rams +380 to get off the schneid.
SAINTS (-3) over Giants: I cannot say how happy I am that it’s the Dallas bye week so I have a shot at watching this game from the comfort of my couch. New Orleans is coming off the bye week and should be fully rested, so that should give Brees enough juice to escape the rush and give the Saints’ D the energy it needs to get to the less-than-100% Manning. Should be an exciting game to watch, though.
Panthers (-3) over BUCCANEERS: Sadly, no one expects a hurricane to rain this game out. Sigh.
PACKERS (-13.5) over Lions: I might take the points here if Stafford and Calvin Johnson hadn’t both been downgraded to doubtful. I can’t name another offensive starter for the Lions, though, so let’s lay the points and take the team coming off the bye week.
Eagles (-14) over RAIDERS: How high do you think the lines will get against the Raiders before the season ends? Has any player in the NFL ever made it more clear that he didn’t care than JaMarcus is currently doing? Is there even an equivalent? Vince Carter once mailed it in to try and get traded, but I don’t even think Russell has that much motivation. I think he just wants to get paid, so he shows up, and he knows they have to play him. I almost, almost, almost feel bad for Raiders fans. Not really. By the way, this and the next three games are the afternoon slate – might as well pencil yourself in for a nap.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals: When Hasselbeck plays, and the game is at Qwest, just lay the points. It’s a simple formula, but I ignored it last week and paid. Probably the only game that has a chance to be watchable.
JETS (-9.5) over Bills: The only concern I have about this one is the weather: it’s supposed to be sloppy and windy in New Jersey on Sunday, which could bring down the scoring and make for an awful to watch event.
Titans (+9) over PATRIOTS: Another game to be played in sloppy weather with moderate winds. There’s question as to how long Kerry Collins will play in any given game, and the Patriots have taken Matt Light off the injury report, but earlier this week he needed crutches to get around with his injured knee. I don’t think the Pats can lose this game, but I think the weather might make it a closer contest than would be expected.
Bears (+3) over FALCONS: I would like this line a lot more if it still had the hook it opened with in it, but I expect the Bears to come in off their bye week motivated, healthier, and with a great deal of respect for Atlanta’s ability following the Falcons’ dismantling of the Niners last weekend. The Bears are not a great matchup for the Falcons, however, because of the speed at linebacker. Look for the Falcons to try to exploit the middle of the field behind the linebackers with Tony Gonzalez, however; if they can succeed in stretching the field up the middle in that manner, it will limit the Bears ability to blitz if the defensive line cannot get to Matty Ice by itself. If Ryan gets all day in the pocket, anyone betting the Bears might as well do something useful with the money and give it to the homeless instead.
Last week: 7-7
Season: 38-38
Upon further review: yeah, Week 4 was 5-9. I’ve adjusted my numbers. It was 6-8 on Yahoo!, where I apparently picked Houston over the Raiders. Somebody sign me up for Umpire Camp or get me an application to be a replacement ref in the NBA . . . I think I’m fully qualified.
1 comments:
BOOOOO.
Post a Comment