(Disclaimer: When I started writing this, Simmons’ column – which does the same thing – wasn’t up yet. I promise. Dammit.)
Week 4 starts the bye weeks . . . apparently BG decided to take his early.
Wimp.
Let me sum up what happened in Week 3 for you: I did better, and would have gone 12-4 if Jake Go-Home hadn’t tossed that pick six to Terence Newman. Which was par for my Monday night.
Now that we have some level of sample size to work with, it’s time for Ticker Rankings.
Teams You Can’t Give Me Tickets To
32. Cleveland Browns: When I saw that Brady Quinn had been benched in the third quarter last week, I sent my sister’s boyfriend (a lifelong Cleveland resident and fan) a text asking if he was excited to revisit the Derek Anderson era. His response: “I’m just hoping for an era of true professional football. . . . Eventually.” Given that Anderson had as many picks in under 2 quarters of a losing effort as Quinn had in over 10, and that Mangini is sticking with him – that “eventually” is going to be a long time coming.
31. Carolina Panthers: Deadly combination of bad factors here: terrible contract extension, quarterback trying to justify it, lack of secondary options at receiver, coach and GM hellbent on justifying the bad contract, and two running backs that could keep this team in any game if they got more than 15 touches but will likely give up by Week 5 because of the first several factors.
30. Tampa Bay: More NFC South hatin’. I wouldn’t have bet pride nor money on Raheem Morris as a coach last week, and, uh, now the organization has benched the only quarterback on the roster that could be named by a casual fan going into the season. Ruh-roh, Shaggy.
29. St. Louis Rams: The best team in this “division,” but since the too many men on the field penalty that irrevocably changed their game against the Seahawks things have been in a steady decline. Of course, now they’re stuck with the Kyle Boller experience, so I think if you sold on them here you’d probably be making money.
Let’s Go To The Circus
28. Oakland Raiders: Yes, they beat Kansas City, but why is it every time I see Oakland in a highlight it’s for the other team? Plus, they plummet to the bottom of the division because they have Al Davis as General Partner. One of the worst 1-2 teams in recorded history.
27. Kansas City Chiefs: One of the “Writers wondered if the team had quit on the coach before Week 3” teams. Other things we know about them: a) no one can tell if the Cassel signing was good or bad, because there’s nothing else on the team; b) there’s not much else to talk about; and c) they are seriously forcing the question of what you call teams that should be rebuilding but instead are getting worse. Decomposing? Rotting? Gangrenous? I like that. “The Chiefs are gangrenous; they should just cut things off and limp forward.”
26. Washington Redskins: Alright, I’ll admit to thinking that maybe Jason Campbell could progress if he got to run the same system two years in a row with the same coach. I was wrong. And with Albert Haynesworth now appearing on the injury report (even if he’ll play this week), this is going to be a week by week talk radio smorgasbord waiting for Zorn to get fired, then evaluating his replacement and looking for any signs to confirm whatever the hosts had said the week before. I look forward to writing three more columns about them.
25. Buffalo Bills: One of the few teams that was guaranteed to appear in this division before a single game was played (thanks, TO!). Here’s the thing: the Bills aren’t that bad. They’re just poorly coached and happened to sign the most ridiculous player (on an actual yards produced scale) in the league. Just another long year for upstate New Yorkers.
We Have An Identity Crisis
24. Miami Dolphins: Especially now that they’ve lost Chad Pennington, can someone tell me what the hell this team does? Other than run the Wildcat and give up big plays? Every week I look at the Miami game and think of reasons they could win, and then they don’t, but never for the same reason. Now their season is in the hands of Henne and White. What does this team do?
23. Detroit Lions: This is the highest the Lions have been ranked in years, which is fitting, since it’s the first time they’ve won in years. That’s it. I’m just sure they’re confused, and they have a win, so here they are.
22. Houston Texans: How do you describe or explain the Texans so far this year? They really can’t play defense, have a potentially explosive offense, and you’re never sure if it’s going to show up on any given week. And they are prone to have a new coach soon. One of the more disappointing teams so far in my opinion.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars: It’s absolutely inexcusable that the Jags are in this division. They should either be really bad, or they should be a team that controls the clock and plays stout defense. Unfortunately, they gave up on Del Rio last season, and his decision to take away Garrard’s radio show this week won’t help. I think I’m going to give these teams a common rule: you can never take them if they’re giving points to anyone. In related news, the sky is blue.
A Year To Forget
20. Tennessee Titans: It’s been a long while since an 0-3 team made the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect this year to be any different, especially because the Titans have the most vulnerable secondary with 3 Pro Bowlers in it in recorded history. All of which raises questions for the future, as you have to wonder how much Kerry Collins has left in the tank. Still, there’s just enough of an outside chance for them that they can’t go to Vince Young . . . yet.
19. Arizona Cardinals: This is not just the continuation of the Super Bowl loser’s curse. It’s that the Cardinals are the same team they were last year: streaky, able to score, and prone to mental lapses. We learned this in Week 1 when a mentally tougher Niners team beat them. Even in the terrible NFC West, there won’t be much heard from the Cardinals this year.
18. Seattle Seahawks: The injury bug has already hit the ‘Ducks, and that’s about all you’re going to need to know. Again. As one of my friends put it: “Seneca covers big spreads as a dog. He doesn’t win close games.”
17. Dallas Cowboys: Yes, Dallas is 2-1, but they absolutely cannot play with the big boys of the league, and unfortunately for them, the schedule is not kind. I have them penciled in to go 8-8, which will be viewed as a huge disappointment in the greater Texas republic. Good news for the Cowboys: I don’t think they’ll lose at home again until December.
On The Verge
16. Cincinnati Bengals: Yes, they’re 2-1, and arguably could be 3-0. Yes, I spent most of Week 1 making jokes about how bad the game between Cincinnati and Denver was, and now there’s a bit of egg on my face. This team is still coached by Marvin Lewis, and they rely on Ced Benson for tough yards. Do you think that’s a good idea?
15. Atlanta Falcons: I was much higher on the Falcons a week ago, but last week put a bit of a damper on my enthusiasm. They do give me hope, though, because they’re another team that’s indicative of the potential for an era where we are actually trying to pick the better team each week in the majority of the games, as opposed to just picking games like this week’s ‘Skins-Bucs matchup. Matty Ice is for real, but the defense isn’t quite there yet.
14. Chicago Bears: I know, I know – blasphemy for me. But Rod Marinelli hasn’t completely rejuvenated Tommie Harris (although the Bears defensive line is significantly better), they’ve lost Urlacher, and there’s an outside chance this team was one bad decision away from 3-0. I’m just not convinced they are the Super Bowl contenders people gave them a chance to be.
13. Denver Broncos: Another team I felt vindicated on being down on after Week 1, but the Bengals' next two games and the Broncos’ ability to convincingly beat bad teams makes me think they could be closer than expected. Let’s see how they do over the next four weeks before we get too excited.
Frisky Personified
12. Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are a very talented team. Good defense, etc. But their lead in the division is the result of a Harvin kick return and a lucky pass. Plus they have Brad Childress as the coach . . . it’s just a matter of time until they start losing. Of course, so far they’ve only played the Browns (who scored 20 points), Lions (led at half), and Niners (should have won). Let’s chat in a month after they play the Packers, Rams, Ravens, Steelers, and Packers again. There’s a good chance Minnesota heads into its Week 9 bye at 4-4. That’s frisky, but it’s not much else.
11. Green Bay Packers: Lot of underachieving going on with this team to date, but I think they may be turning a corner. With that said, I’m not sure they have enough focus to win important games down the stretch, especially since they have struggled thus far with putting teams away.
10. San Francisco 49ers: I would love to put this team higher, but the utter lack of depth concerns me. That said, they remind me of early versions of the Ravens or some of the better Bears teams of the decade: absolutely unremarkable quarterback with a few stud tools (Gore, Davis) and a yeoman-like defense. Actually, they have more offense and less defense than the Bears or Ravens did. Probably more like the 2001 Bears, except that Frank Gore is a lot better than Anthony “A-Train” Thomas. This team hits people in the mouth, however, and will continue to get better.
9. Philadelphia Eagles: This team is heading for trouble, and not the type anyone anticipated going into the season. But when Donovan comes back, his first bad game will start Kolb whispers again. At the end of the day, the locker room will end up a mess, Michael Vick’s contrite and (to date) on-point statements about learning the game will start coming through gritted teeth, and Iggles’ fans are going to watch another couple important drives waste away through terrible clock management and McNabb sulking. By the way, McNabb’s extension is heavily front-loaded for this year for cap purposes. The writing is on the wall.
Legitimate
8. San Diego Chargers: There is an outside chance that LaDainian is actually going to play in December and January this year. Not a good chance, but still, a chance. In the meantime, this team plays well enough in all other phases to compete in every game and has Rivers, Jackson, and Gates. I’ll take that.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers: If not for the freak Week 1 injury to Troy Polamalu, the Steelers would be 3-0. Polamalu is coming back in the next few weeks, and the season will be serviceable enough to put them in the postseason. Which is all they really need to do.
6. New England Patriots: Despite a shaky start, the Patriots are going to get everything running on the right page and they are going to make the playoffs. Last week was a simple reminder that they are still a force to be reckoned with on any given week; they are kind of like the Niners of this grouping: mentally tough, but wiser and craftier than most of their opponents (rather than physically tougher). It’s not going to win a ring, but they have to be left in the conversation.
5. New York Jets: One of my favorite teams to watch so far this season, because they apparently do not have a prevent defense, play hard, hit hard, and do enough offensively to win. They look improved every week, and it’s hard to deny that Sanchez (USC product though he may be, and henceforth immediately unlikable) is legit. I just don’t think they yet have what it takes to challenge the big boys of the league.
Selling Playoff Tickets
4. Indianapolis Colts: I struggle with the way the Colts got to 3-0, but it’s hard to deny that they have (Ed: This is one of the dumbest sentences I've ever written.). This team will be playing in January, and can sell at least 2 games worth of tickets now. Peyton is Peyton, and he seems to have an endless supply of weapons (even if he supposedly doesn’t like throwing to guys in the first 4 years he works with them).
3. New York Giants: Run the ball, throw the ball, rush the passer. The emergence of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith as legitimate targets for Eli Manning a year earlier than I expected raises this team above almost every team in the NFC. They play tough defense, and are easily heading for the NFC East title at this point.
2. New Orleans Saints: There’s not much this team doesn’t do well, and there are a number of players on this team who remember what it takes to go deep in the playoffs. The difference is that this year they’re going to be doing so in the Superdome, and Brees and co. look better than ever – they even play defense now.
1. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco has the weapons and is the quarterback this team has never had. Add in Ray Rice as a workhorse, McGahee as a surprisingly effective tandem back, and the continued strength of the defense, and right now I think the Ravens are the prohibitive favorites to be in the Super Bowl. If the Ravens win this weekend, they could easily go 14-2 this year and not lose before Week 11.
Now, onto the boring part of this week, the picks. FOX was trying to advertise its “exciting slate of regional action” on TV earlier today . . . I almost threw up in my mouth.
Raiders (+8.5) over TEXANS: I don’t take teams with no run defense with an identity crisis when they’re giving points. End of story.
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS: Jacksonville can sort of play defense. It really can’t throw the ball. Tennessee gets off the schneid. Thankfully.
Ravens (+2) over PATRIOTS: I think last week may give Patriots fans a little more hope than it really merits. I think it’s absolutely inexcusable that Baltimore is getting points here . . . this is not slightly more than a fifty/fifty matchup.
Bengals (-6) over BROWNS: I’ve picked four straight road teams to cover. Whatever. Cleve-Land sucks! Cleve-Land sucks!
NY Giants (-9) over CHIEFS: And you like the Chiefs to cover this because?
Lions (+10) over BEARS: The Bears have a point differential of +3. Their 2 wins involved 4 missed field goals by their opponents. Ten points is just too many to feel good about, even if I am leading the charge for Cutler with the phrase “Embrace the Franchise! 6 for the win!”
REDSKINS (-7.5) over Buccaneers: Normally I would just take the points on something this ludicrous, but this seems like a game where the ‘Skins have to come out with some fire trying to atone for last week. Haynesworth and Portis are supposed to play. Call me crazy, but I don’t believe in the Buccaneers (even though I did pick them to win in a confidence pool . . . whatever).
COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks: There are just too many injuries in the Seahawk defense for me to pick them to be within 2 scores.
SAINTS (-7) over Jets: The Jets are going to bring a lot of unbalanced blitzes, but there are too many weapons on the Saints and Sanchez will face his first true test in the noise of the Dome.
Bills (-1) over DOLPHINS: Let’s just say I’m not excited by the Chad Henne Era.
NINERS (-9.5) over Rams: I changed this pick at least fourteen times. I don’t like seeing Shaun Hill try to cover the points, and I don’t trust Kyle Boller to keep the Rams close. There are extremist states using this spread as a method of administering justice to enemies of the state: “If you win the bet, we exile you. If you lose, you die.” And there is not a single person who feels good about the choice they make.
BRONCOS (+3) over Cowboys: As much as it pains me since I picked them to win the NFC East, Dallas is not good. On the road in a hostile environment at altitude, I like them even less. McDaniels is going to pick that defense apart through his puppet, Kyle Orton, whose line will be 14/18, 204 yards, 2 TDs in a win.
Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS: The Chargers will not win, but they will cover. Expect Gates to be double covered all day, and for Mike Tomlin to scream something that sends Norv back to the locker room to hide.
Packers (+3.5) over VIKINGS: I think this is the week the Packers actually play an entire game on both sides of the ball, and I think Rodgers is a better quarterback than Favre. Plus, if there’s a team that deserves the karmic exorcism of picking off Favre to win a game, it’s the Packers.
Last week: 11-5
Season: 26-22
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