Can you read me?
As much as I may think you're deaf, dumb, and blind at times--I know the answer to all three of those questions is "yes." But when the year's over, I hope my exacting reviews leave you wishing you were a pinball--instead of wannabe football pickem--wizard.
Besides, a pinball wizard has such a supple wrist--something I've heard that you could use. (The funny thing is, I had this intro written before I saw your post introducing me and the possibility of lots of classic rock references. You know me too well.)
So Tommy, you went 9-7 in week 1. Depending on where you put your money, that might bring home enough bacon for a cheeseburger, but knowing you, I'd guess that you watched whatever you made on Sunday disappear on Monday night...leaving you with nothing but a beer tab for your weekend's efforts. But that shouldn't be too bad, you lightweight. Unless she was drinking. Wait, you were in LA? That makes me think of a joke involving a monkey, a whorehouse (or USC's campus, take your pick), and a bag of bananas.
The one thing that stands out about your picks--your wins were obvious, and your losses (that half point to Washington, Monday night) were painful. Pick something interesting and inspired next week, and you might have better luck. But lets take a look at the picks and see how quickly I go on tilt.
Tennessee (+6.5) versus Pittsburgh - You start 1-0, but watching how Rashard Mendenhall was used with Willie Parker was less interesting than: a Nationals/Orioles interleague game, who would finish second to Tiger at the BMW, a Julie Roin income tax lecture, Tommy's love life.
Minnesota (-4) versus Cleveland - You didn't take a home dog, and you're 2-0. The Browns franchise isn't just bad--it deserves to be tossed in a burning river (but Baltimore is about the next worst thing). Adrian Peterson read your post and didn't see his name mentioned. After that amazing run in which he threw a Browns defender 5 yards out of bounds, you should include his name instead of #4's in your preview of Viqueens games going forward.
NY Jets (+4.5) versus Houston - My fantasy team didn't know Kevin Walter wasn't starting, and apparently you didn't either. The Jets could've given 4.5 and still covered. I'm not convinced that the Jets are anything close to good, but the next hurricane that rolls through Houston needs to do a lot more to this franchise than damage to Reliant stadium. (How's that for a tasteless hurricane joke?)
2-1. Not bad, since I really don't know how I would've picked this thrilling week 1 matchup.
St. Louis (+8.5) versus Seattle - You won an obvious game to go to 3-1. Congrats. I couldn't tell you the first thing that happened in this game, but seeing a goose egg next to a St. Louis team--no matter the sport--makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside, like I feel when I watch footage of the Hurricane Katrina aftermath set to When the Levee Breaks. Still, I like St. Louis as 10 point home dogs against the Redskins this week. That daring pick I talked about--this is it in week 2.
Tommy, if an asteroid were to destroy both Busch Stadium and the TWA Dome, would we be too busy rejoicing the Cardinals' demise to notice that Rams fans were also celebrating with us?
San Francisco (+6.5) versus Arizona - The team to lose the Super Bowl seems to always lay an egg next year--usually a big one. One so big that it could be mistaken for the one your mother had to sit on to spawn something as dumb and ugly as you. Still, your ugly mug is sitting at 4-1, and steak and scotch Tuesday night are becoming tantalizing thoughts. (Don't worry, Monday night will leave you wanting to wash that taste out of your mouth at the Long Room.)
Coach Singletary resents not being called Iron-Mike, and you pick against the 49ers this season at your own peril. With the Bears looking...well...we'll get to that in a minute, I'd like the 49ers as a surprise Wild Card team if they didn't have to play the AFC South, Atlanta and Philly, and didn't have the mighty Texans after their bye week.
This team is a year away, but I have a feeling that they'll break a lot of hearts in Vegas this season by covering. I hope one of those hearts is yours Tommy.
Philadelphia (-2) versus Carolina - Jake Delhomme 'pick'ed up right where he 'dropped' off in last year's NFC divisional game against the Cardinals. For Bears fans, at least one franchise QB played worse than Jay Cutler. For Panthers fans, the question is whether Carolina can put together a passing game that's just effective enough to avoid turning DeAngelo Williams into the next LaDanian Tomlinson. Any QB can have two bad games in a row, separated by 7+ months.
QB's can also wake up one day and find themselves on the other side of their prime. Ask Brett Favre about that by the time the season is over.
As for the Eagles--they just signed Jeff Garcia. You had to ask how it could go wrong for the Eagles, didn't you Tommy? Still you're 5-2.
Jacksonville (+7) versus Indy - Whatever your impressions of the Jax 'D' were, be glad you didn't put them on canvas, because they'd be so wrongly ugly that a fourth grader couldn't even take them home to mom and dad. The Jax D picked Peyton Manning's first red-zone possession in the end zone and held the Colts to 2.3 yds/carry.
Still, you probably can take a 5-3 record to the bank for a small deposit. Enough to buy her dinner at Olive Garden, anyways, you classy guy.
Reggie Wayne will get his catches and yards, but the Colts' offense isn't what it once was. Jacksonville's offense is probably not that good if it couldn't put up more than 12 on an Indy defense without University of Iowa stud Bob Sanders. Have fun picking either of these teams going forward. Their week one found away to answer fewer questions than my Administrative Law exam.
Dallas (-6) versus Tampa Bay - America's team covered the 6, but you still could be describing next year's Cowboys.
Even you'll be smart enough to notice that the 3 TD's thrown against Tampa Bay went for 42, 66, and 80 yards. So will every offensive coordinator in the league. Fortunately the NFL season is only 16 games, because if my survivor pool came down to Tampa Bay, the Lions, the Rams and a one-bullet game of Russian Roulette, I probably would take the gun.
You're sitting pretty at 6-3, but don't worry, it all comes crashing back to earth, starting with a half-point loss.
Washington (+6.5) versus NY Giants - I'm not sure what's funnier, that Washington blew its special teams wad on a great fake FG play in week 1, in a losing effort, or that you lost this one by a half a point to fall to 6-4.
Lost in this is that the Washington D was good on the road. What's obvious is that nobody in DC, including the staff on the sidelines, trusts Jason Campbell. Still, Washington found a way to cover, and that's a moral unto itself: don't touch games in this division.
Miami (+4) versus Atlanta - Miami won the AFC East last season? For once, you know something that the rest of the nation doesn't. Or is it that history books have already been re-written to give the division to the Pats? Miami is a Jamaican sprinter away from having all fast guys on offense and nobody who can reliably get a fast guy the ball. Well, they might already be there.
As for Atlanta, a weak schedule and solid running game should keep Matty Ice's sophomore season from turning into a Matt-tas-trophe. As in 'he took his eye off the cornerback and threw an interception, turning the drive into a complete Matt-tas-trophe.' (What's more shocking, that Natty Ice has a national ad campaign, or that I'm actually referencing it?)
I like Atlanta to lose only 3 games this season @NYG, @ NE, @ NO and cover a lot of their wins. Obvious pick for 7-4.
Kansas City (+13) versus Baltimore - The guys in Vegas proved that they know what they're doing--13 was one point shy of a push, and you eek out 8-4. If you're smart (and anyone reading this knows you aren't), you'll give these teams a week or two before touching either one. Baltimore shouldn't be giving up 24 to KC at home, and Baltimore shouldn't be scoring 38, even on a team as bad as KC.
Has the Baltimore D jumped the shark? Is KC's offense better than expected? Don't bet until you have some more information to answer these two questions.
Detroit (+13) versus New Orleans - Obvious 9-4. At what point do the spreads get too big to safely bet against Detroit? If they're only getting 13 on the road against a potent NO offense...the answer is most likely going to be "never." When does Detroit come off the board for the season?
Will Obama have to bail the Lions out?
Bears (+3.5) versus Green Bay - A disappointing 9-5 here.
You said that the Bears 'shored up the offensive line.' What the hell were you thinking? You also gave Angelo credit for developing the offense, but seem to have forgotten that wide receiver is an offensive position. Unless you've been listening to Bear Down Chicago Bears a bit too much and think we're still running the T-formation.
For an offense that's improved as much as you gave it credit, it failed to answer a question you need to know for picking games: have the Packers figured out the 3-4 quicker than expected?
But real question--do you take the Bears as home dogs against Pittsburgh this Sunday?
Now--Monday night...who wants to hear me talk about Tommy's 0-2 Monday night? You do? Awesome.
I'm trying to imagine what it feels like to have a successful, 9-5 Sunday brought crashing back to earth by the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders. It would have to be at least as bad as the morning after a bottle of Cab, three hours of all-you-can-drink, and staying out a few hours later than your memory did.
So don't worry Tommy, I can relate.
First off, the Belichick scenario surprises me, because I don't see wives of NFL stars clamoring to sleep with homeless bums in sweatshirts. Wait--you mean he's the Patriots head coach? Give a homeless guy a football, and he'll run unsuspecting youth into muggings by having them "go long." Teach a homeless guy how to coach and you'll win lots of Super Bowls.
While the Patriots won in one of Monday Night Football's most epic comebacks, the Bills were capable of exposing New England's defensive losses. However, the Bills offensive success should last all of a week, after TO realizes he only had two catches. It's also easy to forget that this game is an uncharacteristic Tom Brady 'pick six' away from looking uglier, and maybe even coverable.
Perhaps the Bills are the equivalent of Pitt hoops in the NCAA's for you, but I'd bet against them at least one more time before rethinking that strategy.
The Pats' defense though--that would leave me nervous in their ability to cover after last night. That is if they weren't coached by a man whose heart was hardened and blood turned to ice by years of wearing the same hoodie and sleeping in the same cardboard box.
9-6, and about to go to 9-7.
San Diego (-9) versus Oakland - So you took Tommy's advice on how to get well? You'd be better off with a case of H1N1 - at least you'd get to a doctor who knows the first thing about telling people how to get well. But if you weren't lucky enough to get the pig flu instead of eating a steaming shitpie of Tommy Tearass advice, here's my plan for getting well this next week (that doesn't involve all of us selling Tommy a bank account in Nigeria):
Det (+10) at Min - Brett Favre making his home debut in the purple and white, in a stadium where he's broken the hearts of Viqueens fans for years. Detroit gave up 515 yards to New Orleans, including a whopping 157 on the ground. Minnesota has a better O-line and the best RB in the NFL.
Favre won't need to throw to win this game by 3 scores, but every indication is that he'll be able to throw on Detroit at will. Look for Bernard Berrian to get heavily involved in the Minnesota offense this week on play-action passes.
NYJ (+5) @ NE - Get this one before it bumps up to 6 or 7. Vegas is overreacting to both the ease of a Jets win over a very bad Houston team and NE struggling on the road on Monday night. Teams coached by Belichick won't turn out two clunkers in a row, and even with Eric Mangini gone, Belichick will want to step on the throat of the Jets as much as ever, after the Jets failed to beat the Fins and put the Pats in the playoffs to close last season.
New England wins this by two scores, and you get well.
And if you're Tommy, you get well enough to not only bring home the bacon, but buy that bag of bananas.
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